What can we expect in 2011?
by David Carter on 10 January 2011
The company credit check firm Riskdisk has been analysing the UK business environment and have some thoughts on what the new year holds for UK plc.
They believe that, providing overall demand is broadly unaffected, those businesses that survive a recession have a new opportunity to grow by filling the gap left by their competitors who failed.
Overall, their prognosis for 2011 is cautiously optimistic. The combined total for their credit limits is 5.5% higher than the same point last year, now at over £98 billion. They think that private sector investment and growth will be sufficient to continue the growth seen in 2010 and hope to see an acceleration later in the year.
However, there are some cautionary notes:
- The impact of the recession was not even across sectors. Some were hit harder than others.
- The economy is not out of the woods yet. Rebalancing government expenditure is only just beginning to bite. For some, the squeeze is only just starting. The VAT rise will dampen consumer demand improvement. Capital investment by government is reducing but the private sector, especially energy, is increasing.
- House prices are still going down and the future is uncertain.
- Europe! What will happen to the weaker economies and the Euro currency itself?
A review of 2010
2010 was about emerging from survival through the difficulties of 2008 and 2009 and beginning to build again in a somewhat improving economy. The comparisons of the 'adverse' business statistics between Nov 2010 and Nov 2009 highlight this improvement:
- CCJs were down 26%
- Administration orders were down 34%
- Winding-up petitions were down 21%
- Liquidations were down 9%
- Receiverships were down 35%
- Dissolutions were down 33%
The following statistics can also be considered encouraging:
- Voluntary arrangements up 9% - companies not failing but continuing because those involved can see the light at the end of the tunnel perhaps?
- New Incorporations up 11%!
- Count of trading companies was up 2% with a tiny decline in non-trading.
These are all key metrics which support the argument that things have improved.
Top 5 directors
On a lighter note, the 5 Company Directors most viewed on Riskdisk in 2010 were:
- Simon Cowell
- Alan Sugar
- Richard Branson
- Peter Jones
- Duncan Bannatyne
None of these presumably for credit purposes! David Beckham was 8th on the list and in a year when the Royal Wedding was announced, Kate Middleton’s mother was 11th!
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